Climate physics · co2matters.net

The triple effect of atmospheric CO₂

From radiative forcing to system destabilization — three levels that feed one another.
amplifies atmospheric CO₂
LEVEL 1
The CO₂ blanket keeps thickening
427 ppm in 2025 — +52% vs. the pre-industrial era (280 ppm) · Every doubling of concentration adds +3.7 W/m² of radiative forcing · Energy imbalance measured by NASA CERES: +1.42 W/m², i.e. 700,000 GW trapped permanently = 40× global energy consumption
NASA CERES Earth's Energy Imbalance chart
Earth's energy imbalance measured by NASA CERES, 2000–2026 · © Leon Simons / The Club of Rome
excess heat accumulates
LEVEL 2
The heat accumulates — mostly in the oceans
In 2025, the oceans absorbed an additional +23 ZJ · = 220× annual global electricity consumption · 9th consecutive record · Warming rate: 0.32 W/m² per decade over 2005–2025 — more than double the 1960–2005 rate
🌊 Oceans — 90%
of absorbed heat
🧊 Ice — 3%
accelerated melt
🌍 Land + atm. — 7%
direct warming
destabilizes every system
LEVEL 3
The regulating systems break down
Weakened carbon sinks
Oceans: acidification → weakened plankton
Tropical forests: droughts → sink → CO₂ source
Permafrost: thaw → releases CO₂ and CH₄
Photosynthesis: disrupted beyond temperature thresholds
Wildfires: burned forests → massive emissions
Disrupted thermal regulation
AMOC slowdown: Greenland freshwater → salinity dilution
Sea ice melt: reduced albedo → more heat absorbed
Amplified El Niño: disrupted heat redistribution
Less efficient poles: reduced radiation to space
Melted glaciers: freshwater → thermohaline circulation
↺ Two positive feedback loops already triggered — self-amplifying regardless of our future emissions
amplifies heat accumulation
Sources: IAP/CAS · NASA CERES EBAF · NOAA · Pan et al. 2026 co2matters.net